Posted Jul 23rd 2008 8:30AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Industry, Wal-Mart (WMT), Market matters, Safeway Inc (SWY), Costco Wholesale (COST), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks will be killed today, and attentive investors can get them on the cheap. Oh my,
Costco (NASDAQ:
COST) (
Cramer's Take). I didn't expect that one. That's the best -- it's a shocker. I can't recall how many years it has been since I have seen the words "well below" and "Costco" together.
You can see how it happened: Costco held out. They didn't raise prices. Almost everyone else is raising prices and many are losing customers -- look at
Safeway (NYSE:
SWY) (
Cramer's Take) or
Supervalu (NYSE:
SVU) (
Cramer's Take). But two held out: Costco and
Wal-Mart (NYSE:
WMT) (
Cramer's Take).
When you lump in the ridiculous price hikes that Costco had to take in its gasoline business, you see that it simply wasn't making much money selling anything.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Costco warning kicks off the retail sale
Posted Jul 22nd 2008 8:41AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Short stories, Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), American Express (AXP), Merrill Lynch (MER), Options, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they're not just the opposite of longs -- they have the power to destroy companies. Today will be riotously ugly. Today's a day where you could take down a
Capital One (NYSE:
COF) (
Cramer's Take) or a
Citigroup (NYSE:
C) (
Cramer's Take) -- some bad credit card exposure there -- off of
American Express (NYSE:
AXP) (
Cramer's Take). You can bang down
Nat City (NYSE:
NCC) (
Cramer's Take) into oblivionville off of it and hammer
Merrill Lynch (NYSE:
MER) (
Cramer's Take) to the point where you could hear the rumors fly of capital needs.
Freddie (NYSE:
FRE) (
Cramer's Take), merciless Freddie, right at ya. Today's the day when the uptick rule would be the only friend to the notion of owning stocks without fear every minute, fear that they will break your stock. Today's the day that the uptick rule can save
Lehman (NYSE:
LEH) (
Cramer's Take) from $14 or lower. Today's why we need it.
Yet, every time I do a piece that talks about the need to reinstate the uptick rule or enforce the naked short laws, I am immediately greeted with the same nonsense: why should the longs get protection the shorts shouldn't? In fact, other than the usual gang of two -- Patrick Byrne and David Patch -- I don't get any positive feedback on these pieces like the one I did last night on "Mad Money."
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Shorts are not and should not be equal
Posted Jul 21st 2008 9:09AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Deals, Market matters, Anheuser-Busch Cos (BUD), Research in Motion (RIMM), Genentech Inc (DNA), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the biotechs look sweet in a bank-led slowdown. Thank you, New York Times. Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when The New York Times wrote about how
Genentech's (NYSE:
DNA) (
Cramer's Take) Avastin was too expensive and the stock got cracked down to $77? I know Roche did. I bet that was the last draw. The dramatic decline in the dollar plus a sentiment that has spawned a thousand articles -- that life-saving drugs cost too much -- gave the Swiss giant a chance to bolster its own anemic pipeline by buying what may be the greatest wonder drug of all time in its $43 billion bid, no doubt the beginning price for what will ultimately be a deal close to $100 a share. (I pushed DNA hard here and on "Mad Money" because I have been a huge believer in Avastin and I'm confident that people will pay anything -- or family members will pay anything -- for the hope of three or four months or more of life, or the chance of beating cancer altogether.)
I don't even know where to begin about the positives of this deal. First, it confirms the general trend: the dollar is so weak that it is worth buying anything that's name-brand if you are from Europe, including
Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:
BUD) (
Cramer's Take), a total creature of the weak dollar.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Genentech bid confirms the trend
Posted Jul 18th 2008 9:19AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Market matters, Bank of America (BAC), Comerica Inc (CMA), Nucor Corp (NUE), Oil, Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the value creation at both companies is astonishing and not going away, despite the market trend. Every now and then days like yesterday happen. Days where it is so crazy, where the selling never ends and the buying never ends. Where the sellers just keep reloading and the buyer just keep buying.
Some of it seems like short-covering panic and some of it seems like sellers who can't take the pain anymore. As I watched
Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:
COG) (
Cramer's Take) -- a very good company, a company that priced a gigantic piece of merchandise 30% higher a fortnight ago -- go down more than 10% today, I am astonished at the market's inefficiency.
When I see
Nucor (NYSE:
NUE) (
Cramer's Take) decline 10% on a good quarter and conservative guidance, I marvel at how ridiculous things are. Sure, you can say if you look at a three-year chart, "This is the end of the bubble." But how about value? How about the fact that COG is making much more money than it ever has and is unlikely, given the big shift toward natural gas, ever to make as little money as it did a few years ago?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Look to Cabot, Nucor if/when oil bubble pops
Posted Jul 17th 2008 9:22AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Market matters, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Housing, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we get fed support for a housing bottom, we can really turn things around. If I were at
Wells Fargo (NYSE:
WFC) (
Cramer's Take), today would be a day where I issued several billion in preferred stock or I issued a multibillion equity offering. Why? Because the deed is done; the shorts panicked and covered and took the stock up where it could now be worth doing a deal.
If things are so great at WFC, why do they have to do a deal? Simple: They have a big increase in nonperformers, and when you have a big increase in nonperformers ,you raise capital. Period.
Yesterday's relief rally was not about housing prices bottoming -- I think that will happen next year, not this year -- it was about getting the shorts. The shorts had had their way all over everything. Suddenly you get this surprise smackdown by Chris Cox of the so-called naked shorts -- it's really not at all about that if these stocks aren't hard to borrow -- and you get a dividend boost, something that shorts don't like to pay.
I think today's "upside surprise" from
JP Morgan (NYSE:
JPM) (
Cramer's Take) will generate more short-covering. So will
Bank of America (NYSE:
BAC) (
Cramer's Take) when it declares its dividend.
Which it will.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just a squeeze -- at least for now
Posted Jul 16th 2008 9:10AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Market matters, Caterpillar (CAT), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Black and Decker (BDK), Boeing Co (BA), Wachovia Corp (WB), Texas Instruments (TXN), Deere and Co (DE), United Technologies (UTX), Eaton Corp (ETN), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says when the dust settles, we'll notice the reduced equity here, and stocks will rise to reflect it. Do corporate balance sheets matter? One of the things that you will see in the next few weeks is everyday industrial companies brimming with cash. You are going to see buybacks of huge proportions. Companies like
Deere (NYSE:
DE) (
Cramer's Take) and
Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:
PH) (
Cramer's Take) and
Caterpillar (NYSE:
CAT) (
Cramer's Take) are swimming in cash.
United Technologies (NYSE:
UTX) (
Cramer's Take),
Emerson (NYSE:
EMR) (
Cramer's Take), huge. Every drug company, big. Almost every major tech company from
Intel (NASDAQ:
INTC) (
Cramer's Take) and
Microsoft (NASDAQ:
MSFT) (
Cramer's Take) to
Cisco (NASDAQ:
CSCO) (
Cramer's Take) and
Texas Instruments (NYSE:
TXN) (
Cramer's Take).
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:
JNJ) (
Cramer's Take), which just reported, has a monster amount of cash. (
Eaton (NYSE:
ETN) (
Cramer's Take) will soon, after the smoke clears.)
I know it doesn't matter at all. Right now we are so stuck on the banking problems and on the companies bleeding from higher energy prices that nobody cares about all of this cash, which will be used to shrink equity. They won't care because the banks, brokers and homebuilders, and the hobbled companies that use oil, have to issue so much equity that you can't see the effect of the equity shrinkage. But it will eventually matter. It has to matter that Deere has taken out 10% of its stock in the last four years. It does matter that
Black & Decker (NYSE:
BDK) (
Cramer's Take) has eliminated almost 20% of its equity. Emerson's taken out 5%, same with
Boeing (NYSE:
BA) (
Cramer's Take). There's just a huge amount of equity being shrunk.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Eventually, balance sheets will matter again
Posted Jul 15th 2008 8:56AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Regions Financial (RF), AutoNation Inc (AN), Bank of America (BAC), BB and T (BBT), Merrill Lynch (MER), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Comerica Inc (CMA), D.R.Horton (DHI), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Cramer on BloggingStocks, MBIA Inc (MBI)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out. You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are
Fannie Mae (NYSE:
FNM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Freddie Mac (NYSE:
FRE) (
Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that
Citigroup (NYSE:
C) (
Cramer's Take),
Wachovia (NYSE:
WB) (
Cramer's Take),
Washington Mutual (NYSE:
WM) (
Cramer's Take) and
National City (NYSE:
NCC) (
Cramer's Take) are in trouble.
Bank of America (NYSE:
BAC) (
Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering
Posted Jul 14th 2008 9:03AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Intel (INTC), Market matters, Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the news on Fannie and Freddie is great, but we still have earnings looming ahead. Chance to sell? Every time has been a chance to sell. Every big futures lift. I struggle to think how this time will be different. In 24 hours, the
Fannie (NYSE:
FNM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Freddie (NYSE:
FRE) (
Cramer's Take) fiasco will be behind us. Instead we will be faced with more earnings, and the earnings, while conceivably not horrid -- how bad can
Intel's (NASDAQ:
INTC) (
Cramer's Take) be given the destruction of
AMD (NYSE:
AMD) (
Cramer's Take)? -- won't be great, either. The bulls' best hope is a rally that was put off from Friday after
GE's (NYSE:
GE) (
Cramer's Take) good numbers that showed lots of businesses doing well.
All last week I was picking at stocks, trying to build positions in names I like on the way down.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Buy on the way down, sell on the way up
Posted Jul 11th 2008 8:38AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Market matters, Bank of America (BAC), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Washington Mutual (WM), Headline news, Housing, Cramer on BloggingStocks, MBIA Inc (MBI)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Fannie and Freddie aren't the true culprits here. The blowhards and bluff artists and the Gang of Four --
Ambac (NYSE:
ABK) (
Cramer's Take),
MBIA (NYSE:
MBI) (
Cramer's Take),
MGIC (NYSE:
MTG) (
Cramer's Take) and
PMI (NYSE:
PMI) (
Cramer's Take) -- truly have blood on their hands for this moment. So do the ratings agencies, the mortgage insurers and the salespeople who packaged undocumented loans and pushed buying homes with no money down.
The whole apparatus stinks and we are now seeing the unwinding, but I think that the false assurances created by the Gang of Four and their insistence to not worry made everyone way too complacent. Their glib promises as well as the incredibly lax work of the ratings agencies, S&P and Moody's, enabled the whole edifice to be propped up.
And once it was clear to them that they needed more capital, they chose to forgo the window and attack the shorts. Had they raised the capital they needed and had the ratings agencies said they can't bless any more of this junk, we might have never been in this spot.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The mortgage insurers created this mess
Posted Jul 10th 2008 8:30AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Deals, Market matters, Wrigley, (Wm) Jr (WWY), Dow Chemical (DOW), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says its stunning buy of Rohm & Haas will get people thinking about an energy top. Just when you thought it was safe to short anything, particularly anything with any commodity exposure,
Dow Chemical (NYSE:
DOW) (
Cramer's Take) comes along and inexplicably pays a gigantic amount of money, $78 in cash, for
Rohm & Haas (NYSE:
ROH) (
Cramer's Take)? My first thought was that it must be a joke. That is inconceivable. A hoax. Something perpetrated by frustrated longs to spook the shorts.
I mean, a chemical company? Two chemical companies? Ground Zero for slowing economic activity and raw costs? People unsure if Dow could even pay its nearly 5% yield? I mean, even last night on my show, I made fun of the idea that people are confusing
Becton Dickinson (NYSE:
BDX) (
Cramer's Take), a medical supply company, with a chemical company because it uses resin.
Amazing.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Dow Chemical shakes things up
Posted Jul 9th 2008 9:22AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Market matters, Bank of America (BAC), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Wachovia Corp (WB), Federal Reserve, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they still don't know the score, but they're aware of the need for a financial game plan. At least the fundamentals are no longer sound. That was my takeaway from the two speeches given by our slow-to-understand government chieftains -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke -- in their back-to-back soothing onslaught.
The short-sellers sure didn't like what they heard. They heard that the government might stand at the ready if things keep rolling over. There was a moment when Hank Paulson praised
Fannie Mae (NYSE:
FNM) (
Cramer's Take) for the capital it has raised -- about a week's worth of reserves, one quipped -- and there was a sense that the term facility's extension would be the difference-maker for a
Wachovia (NYSE:
WB) (
Cramer's Take) or a
Bank of America (NYSE:
BAC) (
Cramer's Take). It sure wasn't a decline in loan losses that had them going.
I come back to the same thing. Unless the government says, "Look, examiners, ignore everything, because we can't have total chaos," and unless the stocks rally so much that they can do meaningful fund raises, Paulson and Bernanke don't have the horses to do the job. Their work yesterday was made easy by an oil future decline that triggered an S&P increase.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Paulson and Bernanke step up to the plate
Posted Jul 8th 2008 8:58AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Industry, Market matters, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Washington Mutual (WM), Housing, Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the GSEs as we know them have to die before we can move forward. At last, we have now found our own Resolution Trust Corporation for this era of overbuilding. In fact, we have two of them:
Fannie Mae (NYSE:
FNM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Freddie Mac (NYSE:
FRE) (
Cramer's Take). That's right, we know they are both out of capital, and unlike the ne'er-do-well banks -- almost all of which seem now slated to disappear in one giant bear-market orgy -- there are no saviors.
The dissolution of these two companies is the height of irony. President Bush made it his sub rosa mission to end the hegemony of these two Democrats-in-waiting companies. I don't even think he understood what the guarantee was or what they were supposed to do. That would take a lot of time to figure out. He probably just said, "We have banks, good banks, like
Washington Mutual (NYSE:
WM) (
Cramer's Take) and Countrywide; why do we need Fannie Mae, which just makes money for the Democrats?"
So, over a multiyear scheme, he hamstrung the agencies and let the private banks take over lending and securitizing pretty much anything, because homeownership was another one of his themes, of course, aided by the Fed's insistence that exotic mortgages, especially weird adjustable types, made the most sense.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: An elegy for Fannie and Freddie
Posted Jul 7th 2008 8:52AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Market matters, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Comerica Inc (CMA), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says beyond the long tradition, it's what we need now as a nation. How did "bailout" become such a curse? The U.S. has a long history of bailouts, the big ones being most successful. The U.S. government saved
Lockheed (NYSE:
LMT) (
Cramer's Take) in 1974 -- we need all the competition in military procurement we can get, considering how precious little of it there is -- so it's hard to judge that one a loser. The feds profited from the Chrysler bailout five years later .Not just profited, but had a huge success. The Mexican bailout in the 1990s saved that country's financials and gave the U.S. a tidy profit. The Resolution Trust bailout worked perfectly in restoring the banking system at a small cost, in retrospect, to the chaos we could have had.
Yet here's
JPMorgan (NYSE:
JPM) (
Cramer's Take) taking on a lot of risk, in retrospect, given the junk nature of Bear's portfolio, and there's a tremendous amount of hand-wringing about it?
I say get used to it.
General Motors (NYSE:
GM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Ford (NYSE:
F) (
Cramer's Take) can't cut their way out of their jam, not with the F Series down 40% and GM still paying more for its labor force than it thought would have to. Both have strong, salvageable franchises, but they need capital, a la Chrysler in 1979. I think the feds should give it to them with contingencies that allow the U.S. to profit from any rebound.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: 'Bailout' is not a dirty word
Posted Jul 3rd 2008 9:00AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), CIT Group (CIT), Merrill Lynch (MER), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Wachovia Corp (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Stocks to Sell, Cramer on BloggingStocks, MBIA Inc (MBI)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he has no confidence in these hated names, and neither should you. The financials are flying -- there are finally bids for most of them underneath. Many, including
Lehman (NYSE:
LEH) (
Cramer's Take), are running. What a great time to put the negative cards on the table and put the negatives in perspective. That's right, let's look at the financial Achilles' heels. What could go wrong? In other words, here's the companion piece to Doug Kass' positive conversion. Here's what I am worried about even as Doug thinks everyone's too worried and the bottom is being put in.
To get started, let's look at what's not causing the endless declines in the stocks -- don't worry, we will get to the financial dirty dozen when I finish this preamble.
First, it ain't earnings. Earnings aren't going to be that great. But that's why the S&P is at 14 times. It can go to 12 or 11, or most likely stays at 13-14, but the E goes down (earnings).
Second, it ain't oil. The stocks sensitive to the increase in oil have room to go down, but the price of oil is being factored in slowly but surely.
Third, it isn't inflation or recession. Those two are being baked in each day.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Beware the financial dirty dozen
Posted Jul 2nd 2008 9:22AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), CIT Group (CIT), Countrywide Financial (CFC), Wachovia Corp (WB), Wells Fargo (WFC), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it'll be a huge, bizarre investment that sticks -- not a bid for Wachovia. Why is there so much chatter about
Wachovia (NYSE:
WB) (
Cramer's Take) getting a bid? Why do people think that its deposit base is worth the heartache of dealing with its mortgage portfolio?
We have all heard the chatter about a potential bid for Wachovia, and it sure would be sweet, because the stock has been one of the worst of the group. It doesn't have a CEO, so that fits the scenario of a company that could be for sale. The franchise was always a solid one until now. And I will admit that the secret to the bulls' case for a better second half is a bid for Wachovia, a premium bid that takes everyone's breath away and causes a short panic.
My problem is that if you wanted to buy Wachovia, why not wait? What's the hurry? Is it that you might miss a chance at a bottom? Is there someone else out there who might want it? Do you perceive a bidding war, for instance, between
JPMorgan (NYSE:
JPM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Wells Fargo (NYSE:
WFC) (
Cramer's Take) for WB? How about
USB (NYSE:
USB) (
Cramer's Take)?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: When the bottom comes, you'll know it
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